Bitcoin Price Prediction: Testing $76,000 Support as Treasury Yield Reaches 4.93%

Bitcoin Price Forecast: Testing the $76,000 Level Amid Rising Treasury Yields at 4.93%

Bitcoin faced significant pressure in the last 24 hours, reflecting the combined impact of rising oil prices and volatility in the U. S. Treasury market. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.93%, a key benchmark for assessing monetary conditions and inflationary pressures. At the same time, Bitcoin dropped below $77,000, hitting a daily low of $76,600, drawing attention to the psychological and technical support level of $76,000, now under intense scrutiny.

This trigger was largely driven by Brent crude’s movement, which rose above $110 per barrel, reflecting notable increases since the start of the year. From $60.70 on January 1, Brent recorded nearly an 83% increase, reaching $111 per barrel on September 11, 2026—a level unseen since May. This rise, equivalent to a $50 per barrel increase in just over eight months, was amplified by reports of Houthi attacks from Yemen on Red Sea navigation, sparking fears of oil supply disruptions from the Middle East.

Although the inflationary signal stems mainly from the energy shock, the channel through which this effect reaches the cryptocurrency market is mediated by the bond market. The rise in U. S. Treasury yields raises borrowing costs and tightens global financial conditions, reducing the appeal of risky assets, including Bitcoin. Traders are now reassessing inflation and monetary policy risks, anticipating a possible interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, especially as the producer price index (PPI) accelerates alongside the oil rally.

In a volatile morning session, Brent first broke above $100, then $105 per barrel, extending gains of over 30% compared to early August. Meanwhile, WTI (West Texas Intermediate) returned above $100 per barrel for the first time since May, rising more than 4%. These moves coincided with a deterioration in market sentiment, reflected in the decline of Nasdaq 100 futures, which lost 0.7%, indicating pressure spreading beyond the cryptocurrency market.

During the same period, the bond market

During the same period, the bond market showed significant volatility. Beyond the 10-year yield at 4.93%, the 30-year yield reached 5.35%, a level not seen in 19 years, while the 2-year yield exceeded 4.50%. According to market assessments, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike next week was estimated at 76%, reflecting concerns about inflation overheating driven by energy prices.

A major obstacle in analysis is the lag in inflation data. Most information on August inflation was collected before the new oil price increases, meaning official reports may not fully reflect current inflationary pressure that traders already anticipate. In this context, the market reacts not only to published data but also to expectations about future releases, which could reveal an even stronger impact of the energy shock on core inflation.

In conclusion, Bitcoin’s test of the $76,000 level is not an isolated phenomenon but part of a broader dynamic of macroeconomic risk reassessment. The interaction between the energy shock, rising Treasury yields, and delayed inflation data creates an environment where cryptocurrency prices become more sensitive to shifts in monetary policy expectations. Until official data confirms the extension of inflationary pressure, traders will continue relying on indirect indicators—such as Brent movements and Treasury yields—to form forecasts about Bitcoin’s future price direction.