Bitcoin climbs past $61,000 as weak jobs data cuts Fed hike odds

Bitcoin rebounds on weaker payrolls

Bitcoin surged above $61,000 on Tuesday after the U. S. Labor Department reported June non‑farm payrolls of 57,000, far below the 113,000 forecast. The surprise lowered the CME FedWatch Tool’s implied probability of a September rate hike from 64% to 54%, sparking a rally in the cryptocurrency market while dragging AI‑related equities lower.

The disappointing jobs figure signaled a slowdown in hiring, prompting traders to reassess the Federal Reserve’s tightening trajectory. With inflation still above target, the Fed has been cautious about raising rates, but the data suggested the economy may be losing momentum. Lower rate‑hike odds typically boost risk‑on assets, and Bitcoin, seen as a hedge against monetary tightening, quickly reclaimed the $61,000 level after briefly testing $57,750.

The price bounce was swift. Within minutes of the payroll release, Bitcoin rose 6% from its low, erasing earlier losses and crossing the $61,000 threshold. Market analysts noted that the crypto rally mirrored a broader shift toward safer‑than‑risk assets as investors priced in a potentially softer monetary stance. The CME FedWatch Tool, which tracks futures contracts to gauge policy expectations, showed the September hike probability dip to 54%, a drop of ten percentage points from the previous week.

Will the Fed pause its tightening?

AI‑focused stocks, which had been climbing on hype around generative models, fell sharply as investors reallocated capital to assets less sensitive to interest‑rate risk. The divergent moves highlighted how closely tech‑heavy equities and digital currencies now track macro‑policy signals.

The payroll miss raises the question of whether the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady at its next meeting. Some economists argue that a continued slowdown could compel the Fed to adopt a more dovish tone, especially if inflation shows signs of easing. Others warn that the central bank may still pursue modest hikes to anchor expectations, citing the still‑elevated price pressures.

If the Fed decides to pause, Bitcoin could see further upside as lower financing costs boost speculative demand. Conversely, a surprise hike would likely reverse the recent gains, pulling the cryptocurrency back toward resistance near $57,750. Traders will watch upcoming CPI data and Fed statements closely for clues on policy direction.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did Bitcoin react so strongly to the jobs report? Bitcoin often moves with changes in monetary‑policy expectations. A weaker jobs report lowered the perceived likelihood of a rate hike, making the crypto asset more attractive to investors seeking higher returns.

What does a 54% probability of a September rate hike mean for markets? A probability below 60% suggests the market believes a pause is more likely than a hike. This perception reduces risk premiums, encouraging investment in higher‑yielding or speculative assets like Bitcoin.

Could the Fed’s decision still affect Bitcoin even if rates stay unchanged? Yes. Even a decision to hold rates steady can influence Bitcoin if the Fed signals future policy shifts. Market participants react to both the action and the accompanying commentary.